“Many human and natural systems will face additional severe risks, compared to remaining below 1.5C,” the IPCC’s impact report warned. Any delay to cutting emissions will further increase reliance on removals to stabilise the climate.Ī temporary overshoot of climate goals is dangerous for human societies and ecosystems. While no substitute for deep and urgent emissions cuts, carbon dioxide removals are needed to counterbalance residual emissions from hard-to-abate sectors such as aviation, agriculture and some industrial processes.įive billion tonnes of CO2 would need to be removed each year by 2050 for a 66% chance to limit warming below 2C, under one IPCC scenario, scaling up to 13bn by the end of the century. The latest report from the IPCC concluded sucking carbon dioxide from the air is “necessary” to achieve net zero emissions and “an essential element” to limit heating below 2C by the end of the century. But tree planting competes with food production for land and carbon capture technology is energy-hungry and expensive. In theory, global temperatures can be pulled back by sucking carbon out of the atmosphere through biological solutions such as reforestation and technological ones like direct air capture. Pakistan’s tree-planting ambition in doubt after Imran Khan’s exitĪ paper published in Nature last week gives a 6-10% probability of reaching without exceeding the 1.5C threshold, even assuming all climate commitments to 2030 and mid-century are met. With the latest science showing overshoot of 1.5C, if not 2C, is highly likely, the moment for that conversation may have arrived. “There isn’t enough attention paid to the magnitude of the risk for removing the huge amount of carbon dioxide that will keep us to 1.5C.”
“How will the world manage the risk of temperature overshoot? That is the question that nobody is talking about,” Pasztor told Climate Home. Paris Agreement architect Laurence Tubiana and Janos Pasztor, executive director of the Carnegie Climate Governance (C2G) Initiative, were other members.
Among them, five were from developing countries, including Cop27 host Egypt’s environment minister Yasmine Fouad, former Marshall Islands president Hilda Heine and Youba Sokona, vice-chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Parson became one of 11 on a steering committee of politicians, policymakers and academics to shape what the commission should look like. The idea for a commission to assess climate engineering options was floated in 2017 by Edward Parson, professor of environmental law at the University of California. He is president of the Paris Peace Forum, which will host the commission.
“The primary strategy to combat climate change should remain reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but it has also become necessary to explore additional strategies,” Jesse Reynolds, executive secretary of the commission, told Climate Home.įrance’s Pascal Lamy, director general of the World Trade Organisation between 20, has been appointed as chair. The Climate Overshoot Commission will address sensitive questions around the ethics and feasibility of potential ways to reverse warming that are problematic or unproven at large scale. A high-powered commission due to launch in May aims to break the silence.Ĭlimate diplomats are finalising a 15-strong lineup of former presidents, ministers and representatives of international organisations to explore options for deep adaptation, carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and geoengineering, Climate Home News can reveal.
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Yet there has been little discussion at an international level on how to handle “overshoot” of those goals. The chances of keeping global temperature rise below 1.5C, the toughest goal of the Paris Agreement, are increasingly slim.
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